As we enter the second half of 2009, there is growing optimism at the emergence of so-called 'green shoots', but there is a risk that this optimism will prove premature. Output is still falling in most of the industrialised world.
The downturn in tourism demand is slowing...
As we enter the second half of 2009, there is growing optimism at the emergence of so-called 'green shoots', but there is a risk that this optimism will prove premature. Output is still falling in most of the industrialised world.
Travel to European destinations in 2009 has been well below last year's levels. Of the 19 countries for which 3-5 months of arrivals and/or overnight data is available, only one has posted growth, while ten countries have seen volumes contract by over 10%.
... but it is too soon to speak of a recovery
Responses to Eurostat surveys suggest that industry sentiment among the hospitality and transport sectors is turning less negative. But travel agencies have only held steady in their outlook, supporting the guarded optimism.
The shift towards shorter-haul travel and a weaker euro should bring some stability to the intra-European market. Tourism Economics expects inbound travel to Europe to decline by more than 5% in 2009. The World Tourism Organization is even more pessimistic, forecasting a drop of between 5% and 8%. At best, international arrivals are likely to fall back to 2006 levels. With a relatively slow recovery forecast, regaining 2008 levels will take two years, Tourism Economics predicts, followed by above-trend growth in 2012-13.
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