GDS September Reservations Increase According to Pegasus
Arguably the beginning of the recession for the hospitality industry started in September 2008, so this is a fitting time to reflect on how it is performing. On the surface, it looks like there may be signs of improvement with global reservations up year over year.
Is this a sign that performance has bottomed out? It could well be, however, once we look at 2009 figures compared to 2007 and 2008; we see that there is quite a way to go before we can say that there has been a recovery in room rates. The ADS channel in particular is still tracking below last year and substantially below 2007. The GDS channel has held up better, but it is still trailing last year and prior.
Looking forward, ADR (Average Daily Rate) appears relatively flat year over year through the last quarter of this year and the first of next. However, there may be some cause for optimism, especially on the ADS front, as recent booking patterns would suggest transactions will happen closer to arrival and so booking should be on a slight upward spiral. That said, ADR looks like it will continue to be challenged and so a slight rise in bookings year over year will not give rise to an increase in hotel revenue year over year.
GDS CHANNEL (CORPORATE TRAVEL FOCUS)
The GDS channel had a strong month in September; while net reservations were down -3.42% vs. September 2008, they increased +8.45% month over month (September 2009 vs. August 2009) and actually climbed close to +7% compared to September 2007. The ADR was the highest achieved this year at $162. Unfortunately, despite the relative rises in ADR and net reservations for the month, the overall net revenue is down -15.22% YOY and -26.08% down YTD 2009 vs. 2008.
Looking forward for the next six months, the numbers are not terribly encouraging. October is up versus the same time last year and with the shorter lead time on bookings the picture may not be as bad from a reservations volume perspective. However, there does not appear to be any respite in sight from an ADR and therefore revenue perspective.
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