Supply in London is projected to increase by 3.5 percent, while demand will grow by 2.9 percent. The excess supply is forecasted to lead to an occupancy decrease of -0.5 percent in 2013.
Supply in London is projected to increase by 3.5 percent, while demand will grow by 2.9 percent. The excess supply is forecasted to lead to an occupancy decrease of -0.5 percent in 2013. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is expected to decline by -1.6 percent, primarily driven by a decrease in average daily rate (ADR) of -1.1 percent to GBP139.13.
“RevPAR is predicted to increase in June and July, driven by a surge in occupancy from the return of the regular summer guests”, said Elizabeth Randall Winkle, managing director of STR Global. “However, this will be offset by a drastic decline in ADR the following month, resulting from the 2012 Olympic Games being hosted in London during August of last year. Unfortunately, the continuing economic uncertainty across Europe makes forecasting a challenging task and subject to change.”
In London, across the hotel class segments, Upper Midscale hotels are the only segment to see an increase in occupancy and RevPAR. The 0.4-percent increase in RevPAR is because the Upper Midscale segment is the only segment where demand is forecasted to outpace supply. It is also the only segment in which occupancy is expected to exceed 80 percent.
In 2013, supply across regional U.K. is forecasted to grow 1.4 percent, exceeding demand growth of 0.6 percent and leading to an occupancy decrease of -0.8 percent. The decline in occupancy will be moderated by a 1.7 percent increase in ADR, resulting in a 0.9 percent increase in RevPAR to GBP41.54.
Across the U.K., monthly RevPAR percentage changes from the previous year are projected to range between -7.4 percent and 8.9 percent in Birmingham, with percentage ranges in Edinburgh (-6.2 percent to +8.2 percent), Gatwick (-2.0 percent to +13.3 percent), Glasgow (-4.5 percent to +12.1 percent), Heathrow (-7.1 percent to +12.3 percent), Leeds (-2.5 percent to +9.5 percent) and Manchester (-7.0 percent to +9.4 percent) illustrating similar patterns.
STR Global, in conjunction with Tourism Economics, produces quarterly Market Forecast reports for 45 markets across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
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This announcement would be useful if it gave some explanation for the forecasts. Or, indeed, if STR were to make public their accuracy record - which might at least make us believe that they were reliable, even if they wouldn't tell us what their reasons are.
2013-01-21 Ian Gamse