Market Report U.K.

UK HIP Drops in October with Increased Recession Risk

UK-HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in UK hotel business activity, had a rate of 12.2% in October, falling from a rate of 19.8% held in September.

e-forecasting.com Business activity in UK hotels decreased in October to a reading of 145.4 according to the latest reading of the UK Hotel Industry's Pulse (UK-HIP) indicator. e−forecasting.com's UK-HIP, a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the UK hotel industry decreased 2% in October. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Graph - U.K. Hotel statistics

UK-HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in UK hotel business activity, had a rate of 12.2% in October, falling from a rate of 19.8% held in September.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession, which is detected in real-time from UK-HIL, a leading indicator for United Kingdom hotels, registered 21.3%  in October, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than in September. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50%, the UK hotel industry enters a recession.

"UK-HIP is continuing to slow and our leading indicator, UK-HIL, is showing an increase in the likelihood of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry," commented Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com.

UK HIP and UK HIL are two of the major proprietary components to the Monthly Hotel Forecast reports which cover key markets in Europe.  These baseline forecasts are developed by e-forecasting.com using historical data from HotStats, the hospitality intelligence provider.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage. For more information visit www.e-forecasting.com

About HotStats

HotStats, a leading firm in the hotels, tourism and leisure industries, provides a unique profit and loss benchmarking service to hoteliers from the UK, European and MENA markets, with more than 100 performance metric comparisons covering 70 areas of hotel revenue, cost, profit and statistics. For more information visit www.hotstats.com



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