Market Report U.S.

Forward Looking Indicator for US Hotels Shows Strong Start to 2014

US Hotel Industry Leading Indicator - HIL - Up in December

e-forecasting.com Future business activity in U.S. hotels increased in December according to the latest reading of the U.S. hotels' future business conditions (US-HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's US-HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, went up 0.7% in December to 117, after an advance of 0.9% in November. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Graph - US Hotel Industry Leading Indicator December 2013

US-HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 5.9% in December, after recording a rate of 5.3% in November. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from US-HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 2.6% in December, down from November's rate of 3.6%. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"The full December report shows that there will be a continued strength in the US hotel industry through at least the first half of the year," commented Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Six of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (US-HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in December: Hotel Worker Hours; Hotel Profitability; Yield Curve; New Orders; Housing Activity, and Vacation Barometer.  The three indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in December: Jobs Market; Foreign Demand, and Oil Prices.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or US-HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the US hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the US hotel industry. 



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