Market Report U.S.

E-forecasting.com and Trivago Release Online ADR Statistics for May

U.S. online hotel room rates are up 5.6% from a year ago this May

e-forecasting.com Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $202.89 this May, up from $196.15 in April, according to trivago hotel price indices¹ (tHPI) released today. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $393 to a low of $114 this May. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2014 about one-half of US hotel sales are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth seven years ago.

Table - U.S. Hotel Analytics April 2014

On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+5.6%) in May from a year ago, better than the previous month's reading of (+3.8%). This May, trivago online room rates in New York are holding the same as last year to $393 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets.  Boston takes the second place in May with an online room rate of $361, after an increase of (+9.4%) from a year ago. In Washington D.C., the online room rate in May is growing (+2.4%) from last year to $299 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.

Table - Top 25 U.S. DestinationsAt the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this May is San Antonio with a trivago online ADR of $123 a night with a nil change from a year ago; Salt Lake City with an online ADR of $120 with a (−0.8%) change; and lastly, Phoenix with an online ADR of $114 with a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $165 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, Denver is the country's average affordable city to visit this May.

Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate hit $193.91 in May.  On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago - SSA online ADR this May is up (+1.7%) from the previous month, which is higher than April's monthly change of (+1.6%). Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in May ranges from a high of (+4.7%) in Chicago to a low of (−2.2%) in Seattle. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 21 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 4 cities.

"The latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts US hoteliers per room profitability to decline 1.8% in the third quarter from a year ago," said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at info@e-forecasting.com with subject: US Hotel Forecast.

Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are up (+2.8%) on a year-over-year basis in May, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate has gained (+5.6%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+2.8%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the previous month (April), compared to a mark of (+1.0%) a year ago (May 2013). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+15.9%) in Las Vegas to a low of (−6.5%) in Philadelphia in May. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 19 cities; they are down or are flat in 6 cities.

On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 0% in May, which is lower than April's reading of 1%. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in May ranging from a high of 98% in Detroit to a low of 1% in Las Vegas. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in two cities; it is 50 or below in 23 cities.

Graph - U.S. Hoteliers Unit Costs

About e-forecasting.com

Founded in Durham, NH in 1994, e-forecasting.com is a predictive intelligence consulting firm offering to clients customized solutions for what’s next. For over 15 years, its hotel insights division has focused on hotel predictive analytics and forecasting products for the top destinations around the world to enhance its clients competitive advantage and improve their bottom line.

About trivago

Founded in Düsseldorf in 2005 with operations in 39 countries, trivago is the world’s largest online hotel search site, comparing room rates from over 700,000 hotels on over 200 booking sites worldwide.  Each month, more than 45 million visitors use trivago’s unique online technology, which compares 5 billion hotel deals a day - more than a trillion a year - and saves them an average of 35% per booking.  Visit online http://www.trivago.com.



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