Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $203.36 this June, up from $202.89 in May, according to trivago hotel price indices¹ (tHPI) released today. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $364 to a low of $95 this June. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2014 about one-half of US hotel sales are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth seven years ago.
On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+5.0%) in June from a year ago, worse than the previous month's reading of (+5.6%). This June, trivago online room rates in New York are falling (−0.8%) from last year to $364 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets. Boston takes the second place in June with an online room rate of $346, after an increase of (+5.5%) from a year ago. In San Francisco, the online room rate in June is growing (+16.0%) from last year to $305 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.
At the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this June is Salt Lake City recording a trivago online ADR of $129 a night with a (+2.4%) change from a year ago; Indianapolis posts an online ADR of $128 with a (+6.7%) change from last year; and lastly, Phoenix marks an online ADR of $95 with a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $172 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, New Orleans is the country's average affordable city to visit this June.
Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate hit $196.68 in June. On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago - SSA online ADR this June is up (+1.2%) from the previous month, which is lower than May's monthly change of (+1.6%). Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in June ranges from a high of (+4.9%) in Seattle to a low of (−4.1%) in San Francisco. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 21 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 4 cities.
"The latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts US hoteliers per room profitability to decline 1.8% in the third quarter from a year ago," said Maria Sogard, CEO of eforecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at email@example.com with subject: US Hotel Forecast.
Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are up (+2.8%) on a year-over-year basis in June, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate has gained (+5.0%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+2.1%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (+3.0%) in the previous month (May), compared to a mark of (+3.5%) a year ago (June 2013). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+21.8%) in Los Angeles to a low of (−10.7%) in Chicago in June. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 19 cities; they are down or are flat in 6 cities.
On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 0% in June, which is the same as in May. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in June ranging from a high of 81% in Miami to a low of 1% in Minneapolis. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in 4 cities; it is 50 or below in 21 cities.
Founded in Durham, NH in 1994, e-forecasting.com is a predictive intelligence consulting firm offering to clients customized solutions for what’s next. For over 15 years, its hotel insights division has focused on hotel predictive analytics and forecasting products for the top destinations around the world to enhance its clients competitive advantage and improve their bottom line.
Founded in Düsseldorf in 2005 with operations in 39 countries, trivago is the world’s largest online hotel search site, comparing room rates from over 700,000 hotels on over 200 booking sites worldwide. Each month, more than 45 million visitors use trivago’s unique online technology, which compares 5 billion hotel deals a day - more than a trillion a year - and saves them an average of 35% per booking. Visit online http://www.trivago.com.
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