FREQUENT-FLYER
miles have come of age. Twenty-one years ago this week, American
Airlines launched AAdvantage, the world's first mileage-based
frequent- flyer programme. Today, some 100m people around the
world belong to at least one such scheme. One in three American
adults collects frequent-flyer miles. But how safe are they?
Airlines first introduced mileage schemes to build up customer
loyalty. They also provided a vast marketing database, allowing
airlines to track a passenger's travel history and to focus
advertising. Today, however, almost 50% of miles are earned
without even leaving the ground. The biggest earners are
credit-card spending and telephone calls, but car rental, hotels,
share-trading or refinancing a mortgage all offer extra
opportunities to top up your miles. In America you can even get
miles on your income-tax payments, if you pay by credit card. The
world's top frequent flyer, reputedly a publishing executive who
charges his firm's postage bill to his own credit card, has racked
up 25m miles-enough to fly London to Sydney return 250 times. Free
tickets purchased with frequent-flyer miles account for an average
of 8% of airlines' revenue passenger miles. But the proportion
varies by airline. Last year, free tickets accounted for an
estimated 10% of the miles flown by American Airlines' passengers,
up from 8.4% in 1996. British Airways will not reveal how many
free seats it gives away, but it is thought to be stingier. On
most airlines, one mile is earned for every mile flown. But what
is a mile worth? Airlines sell miles to partner companies, such as
credit-card firms, at an average of just under two cents a mile.
Since last year some American airlines have been selling miles
directly to passengers, at three cents per mile, to allow them to
top up their accounts. But if you make the best use of your miles,
such as flying first class across the Atlantic, the market value
can be up to nine cents a mile. The miles that employees earn
flying on business are a big fringe benefit that the state would
love to tax. But valuing such perks and enforcing the tax is
currently too difficult. In February America's Internal Revenue
Service announced that, for now, frequent-flyer miles would not be
taxed. Frequent-flyer junkies treat miles almost like a second
currency, but they are not freely tradable. The fine print of all
programmes says that you cannot sell, buy or barter miles.
However, as with any controlled currency, there is a thriving
black market. Brokers, such as Award Traveller, will buy your
miles at a discount (by paying you to redeem them for a ticket in
the name of one of their customers). Airlines try to crack down on
such sales. If you are found out they can confiscate the ticket
and close your account.
Once it was all a gimmick Frequent-flyer miles started as a
marketing gimmick, but the sale of miles has become a nice earner
for airlines. In 2001, they sold roughly $10 billion-worth of
miles to partners, such as credit-card firms. This boosts
airline's revenues; and the marginal cost of giving away free
seats that would otherwise be empty is minimal. But what about the
future financial liability arising from unredeemed miles? Airlines
include a contingent liability in their accounts, to cover the
future cost of unredeemed miles. They value them at marginal
cost-a lot less than the price they sell them for. From a strict
financial point of view, there is little risk to the airlines. The
liability of unredeemed miles cannot cause an airline to go bust,
because it can limit the number of free seats available. However,
there is a looming problem for frequent flyers themselves. It is
becoming easier to earn miles, yet the number of seats is limited.
Randy Petersen, editor of InsideFlyer, a magazine for frequent
flyers, has some alarming figures on his website. The total number
of miles awarded each year by airlines worldwide has doubled over
the past five years; but miles redeemed have increased by only
one-third (see chart). In 2001, over four times as many miles were
earned as were redeemed, and miles do not expire so long as
members have earned or used them in the past three years. As a
result, airlines' liability surged to almost 8 trillion miles by
the end of 2001. At the current rate of redemption, it would take
23 years to clear this liability even if no new ones were issued.
Already, too many miles are chasing too few available seats.
After September 11th there were lots of empty seats, making it
easy to get a free flight. But as travel returns to normal, many
travellers complain that it is once again difficult to get free
seats or upgrades on the flights they want. Miles can also be used
to buy holidays, car rental and goods such as books and CDs, but
these purchases currently account for only 3% of redemptions.
Airlines could respond by increasing the number of miles required
for a free flight, as they did in the mid-1990s. Some of them have
already become more flexible. American allows members to pay extra
miles to claim a free seat without the usual restrictions on seat
availability and date of travel, if there are empty seats on a
plane. But increasing the miles needed for a ticket or making free
tickets harder to get both have the effect of devaluing
frequent-flyer miles. The fine print of frequent-flyer programmes
makes chilling reading. The rules for AAdvantage warn that "the
accumulation of mileage credits does not entitle members to any
vested rights...In accumulating mileage, members may not rely on
the continued availability of any award." The clear lesson is: use
your miles while you can. US Airways has launched a deal where,
for a mere 10m miles, you can buy a seat on the first private
spacecraft to take passengers into space, scheduled for 2004. Why
wait SOURCE:The Economist