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Tourism has
shown again, how resilient and stable economic sector it is. Compared to the
preliminary estimates issued last January, updated information demonstrates
that world tourism only experimented a small reduction in 2001. According to
recent and more precise information, it now appears that the decrease in
world tourism arrivals has been adjusted to - 0.6 per cent.
Worldwide there have been 693 million international tourist arrivals in 2001
corresponding to a decrease of - 0.6 per cent or 4 million down from the 697
million of 2000. Tourism growth already decelerated before September 11
because of the deterioration in economic conditions affecting major North
American, European and Asian economies at the same time, with worldwide
economic growth dropping to 2.5 per cent in 2001, down from 4.7 per cent in
2000, with some economies even slipping into recession for part of the year.
The terrorist attacks of 11 September severely aggravated the situation and
as a result, for the first time since 1982 (the times of the second oil
crisis, martial law in Poland, the Falkland war and the conflict between
Israel and Lebanon) the worldwide number of international tourist arrivals
showed a slight decrease.
"International tourism experienced a serious crisis but showed again how
resilient it can be," said WTO Secretary-General Francesco Frangialli. "On
one hand it was surprising to see a decrease in an industry that is used to
constant growth, on the other it is encouraging how stable this economic
sector is. Its decrease was temporary and somewhat less painful than we had
expected. Decrease in some other industries, information technology for
example, can be much more volatile and can have stronger effects. We are
confident that our predictions during ITB, that tourism growth will be
restored by the end of this year, will be fulfilled."
Not every destination has been equally affected. Most affected were South
Asia (a drop of -24 per cent in the period September-December 2001),
Americas (-20 per cent) and Middle East (-11 per cent), in all three cases
following an already weak January-August period. For the whole year Americas
and South Asia dropped by -6 per cent, Middle East by -3 per cent. East Asia
and the Pacific (+5 per cent) and Africa (+4 per cent) still finished the
year with an increase. Europe recorded a small decrease of -0.6 per cent.
International Tourism Receipts
For many
countries, both developed and developing, tourism is a very important source
of foreign currency earnings and employment. Worldwide receipts amounted to
US dollar 462 billion in 2001, which means US$ 1.3 billion or euro 1.4
billion a day. Compared to 2000 the receipts decreased -2.6 per cent from
474 billion. Expressed in euro international tourism receipts amounted to
516 billion, up 0.5 per cent from 514 billion in 2000. In 2001 US dollar
appreciated 3 per cent compared to the euro (US$ 1.12 euro in 2001, 1.08 in
2000). Average receipts per arrival were US$ 670 or euro 750.
"About a half of all world's tourism receipts are earned in Europe, so WTO
decided to start following financial statistics also in euro," Mr.
Frangialli explains.
In current prices receipts expressed in US dollar decreased by -2.6 per
cent, while expressed in euro they still grew by 0.5 per cent. In constant
prices (i.e. corrected for inflation) receipts expressed in US dollar
decreased by -5.2 per cent and expressed in euro by -2.1 per cent.
Decrease in receipts exceeded decrease in volume somewhat, both because of
September 11 and the economic downturn already felt before. In economic
tight times consumers typically react not so much by refraining from travel
but by trading down, i.e. they choose for instance for shorter stays in less
expensive destinations with travel and accommodation in lower categories.
Second, the shift towards closer-by destinations accessible by land
transport after September 11 depressed spending levels even more.
Half of all receipts are earned by Europe, Americas has a share of 26 per
cent, East Asia and the Pacific 18 per cent, Africa 2.5 per cent, Middle
East 2.4 per cent and South Asia 1.0 per cent.
Outlook
2002
In the first
part of the year it has become evident that recovery is underway: fear is
progressively fading away and business is gradually returning to normal.
Recovery is most visible in intraregional travel, and in the regions of
Pacific, Europe and Africa. East Asia may expect a very positive growth
influenced by the World cup in football.
On the whole economic conditions seem encouraging, although signs may
sometimes be contradictory. Interest rates are still low, inflation is
generally under control, consumer confidence is improving and commodity
prices are also relatively low although fuel price is somewhat volatile.
In its World Economic Outlook of last April the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) was much more optimistic about the prospects for the world economy
than in the issue of December last year. Forecast for most countries were
adjusted upwards by several tenths of percentage points. In the latest
released data beginning of June, IMF even raised its forecast for global
economic growth in 2002 again, to 2.9 per cent.
Furthermore, for the midterm some pent up demand of postponed travel might
be noticeable. For some destinations demand might be negatively influenced
by the fact that operators have reduced capacity. "The situation is not yet
completely favourable; there still exist uncertainties about new acts of
terrorism, the conflict between Israel and Palestine and the tension raised
between India and Pakistan," Mr. Frangialli warned.
For
additional information please contact:
Rok V. Klancnik/Alla Peressolova
Tel. (+34) 91-567-8191, (+34) 91-567-8193
Fax: (+34) 91-567-8218
Email: comm@world-tourism.org
Please
note: The attached tables are based on data collected by the WTO Secretariat
from the official institutions of the countries and territories or from
official international bodies. Comprehensive results and analysis will be
published in the WTO Tourism Market Trends series of regional reports
scheduled to be issued in September 2002.
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