Trends

STR Global Forecasts Positive Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth Across Four Key Asian Markets in 2012

STR Global forecasts on a quarterly basis the hotel performance in Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney. RevPAR growth is expected to be mainly driven by increasing average daily rate (ADR), following strong occupancy performances in Singapore, Hong Kong and Sydney during 2011. The markets posted occupancy of more than 80 percent for the year, while Beijing achieved just less than 70 percent.

STR Global

STR Global is forecasting positive revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth across four key Asian markets in 2012.

 

STR Global forecasts on a quarterly basis the hotel performance in Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney. RevPAR growth is expected to be mainly driven by increasing average daily rate (ADR), following strong occupancy performances in Singapore, Hong Kong and Sydney during 2011. The markets posted occupancy of more than 80 percent for the year, while Beijing achieved just less than 70 percent.

2012 hotel RevPAR performance forecast ranges

 

Cities  RevPAR (local) % change
Beijing 5.0-7.0
Hong Kong 2.0-4.0
Singapore 6.0-8.0
Sydney 3.0-5.0

Source: STR Global

Supply is expected to grow between 1.1 percent and 2.5 percent across the four cities, with demand predicted to increase between 1.7 percent and 3.8 percent.

 

Following strong demand growth during 2010 (+22.8 percent) and 2011 (6.2 percent), Singapore is expected to see the metric increase at a rate less than supply during 2012. The imbalance is forecasted to lead to an occupancy decrease of 0.6 percent for the year.

 

In Beijing, occupancy growth and ADR growth (+4.5 percent to CNY 677.76) will support RevPAR growth between 5.0 percent and 7.0 percent in 2012.

 

Hong Kong is predicted to see the largest supply increase (+2.5 percent) of the four cities, which is expected to be offset by a 3 percent demand increase that will drive growth in occupancy, ADR and RevPAR.

 

Sydney is forecasted to see the smallest supply increase, resulting in moderate occupancy (+1.2 percent) and ADR (+2.6 percent) growth.

For the 12 months through January 2012, Hong Kong reached occupancy of 84.5 percent, followed by Singapore (84.1 percent), Sydney (82.1 percent) and Beijing (67.9 percent), where 12-month average occupancy levels were similar to the levels recorded during the pre-Olympics period in March 2008 (67.9 percent).

Source: STR Global

“Our forecast indicates that 2012 will be another positive year with demand growing in Beijing (+3.8 percent), Hong Kong (+3.0 percent), Singapore (+1.7 percent) and Sydney (+2.3 percent). This, coupled with limited new supply, will benefit RevPAR”, commented Elizabeth Randall, managing director at STR Global. “With high demand and corresponding occupancy levels, we estimate average room rates to pick up”.

STR Global, in conjunction with Tourism Economics, produces quarterly Market Forecast reports for 45 markets across Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific. 



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