Market Report U.S.

March Hotel Biz Analytics Predict a Bright Outlook for US Hoteliers

Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in March according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.1% in March to 115.5, following a decline of 0.1% in February. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

e-forecasting.com Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in March according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions  (HIL) indicator.  e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.1% in March to 115.5, following a decline of 0.1% in February.  The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Looking at HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 2.7% in March, following a positive rate of 3% in February. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

Graph - contributions of leading indicators to the growth of HIL in March 2015The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 3.4% in March, up from 2.7% reported in February.  When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"Led by hotel profitability and low energy costs, our hotel industry leading indicator, the early bird of hotel analytics, reversed course from February's dip hitting the peak reading of last January," said Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Six of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in March: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders and Oil Prices.  The three indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in March: Hotel Worker Hours; Housing Activity and Vacation Barometer.

"HIL’s performance is consistent with e-forecasting.com real-time national leading indicator, which seems to have peaked in November 2014" said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast with 24-month ahead predictions, including insights of the domestic and international business climate, email us at info@e-forecasting.com with subject: US Hotel Forecast.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e­forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients' competitive advantage. 

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry. 


About e-forecasting.com 

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.                       

The Hotel Industry Pulse, or U.S.-HIP for short, is a hotel industry indicator that was created to fill the void of a real-time monthly indicator for the hotel industry that captures current conditions. The indicator provides useful information about the timing and degree of the industry’s link with the US business cycle for the last four decades. Simply put, it tracks monthly overall business conditions in the industry, like an industry GDP, and points in a timely way to the changes in direction from growth to recession or vice versa. The composite indicator is made with the following components: revenues from consumers staying at hotels and motels adjusted for inflation, room occupancy rate and hotel employment, along with other key economic factors which influence hotel business activity. HIP indicators are also available for the United Kingdom and Germany.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or U.S.-HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, U.S.-HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. U.S.-HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry. HIL indicators are also available for the United Kingdom and Germany.     



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