Market Report U.S.

Led by Profits, E-forecasting.com U.S. Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator Rose in June

e-forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.6% in June to 122.3, following an increase of 0.4% in May. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

e-forecasting.com Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in June according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions  (HIL) indicator.  e-forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.6% in June to 122.3, following an increase of 0.4% in May.  The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Looking at HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 7% in June, following a positive rate of 6.9% in May. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

Graph - U.S. Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator June 2015The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 0.1% in June, down from 0.1% reported in May.  When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"Led by increases in vacation plans and housing market optimism, the early bird of hotel analytics rose in June for a 34th month in a row," said Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Six of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in June: Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders; Housing Activity and Vacation Barometer.  The three indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in June: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours and Oil Prices.

"The lower energy prices seems to have increased optimism on travel for both consumers and business" said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast with 24-month ahead predictions, including insights of the domestic and international business climate, email us at info@e-forecasting.com with subject: US Hotel Forecast.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e­forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients' competitive advantage.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.                                                                           

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.                      

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the US hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the US hotel industry.



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