Market Report U.S.

Record Low Energy Continues to Boost Hotels

, e-forecasting.com U.S. Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator up in December

e-forecasting.com

Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in December according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions  (HIL) indicator.  e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.2% in December to 138, following an increase of 0.1% in November.  The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Looking at HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 2.7% in December, following a positive rate of 2.9% in November. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

Graph - U.S. Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator December 2015The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 2.9% in December, up from 2.2% reported in November.  When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"Again, these now record low energy prices continue to positively impact the US hotel industry," said Maria Sogard, CEO at e­forecasting.com. 

Five of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in December: Hotel Worker Hours; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; Oil Prices and Vacation Barometer. Four indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in December: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; New Orders and Housing Activity.

"The latest monthly forecast for US hotels predicts online Average Daily Rate (oADR) to slightly edge down in 2016 following an annual increase on record of 8.3% in 2015," said Evangelos Simos, adviser for predictive analytics research at e-forecasting.com and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

For month-by month three-year ahead predictions, including insights of online room rates, costs per room and profitability, email us for complimentary copy of the latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast at: info@e-forecasting.com with subject: US Hotel Forecast.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e­forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients' competitive advantage.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.                      

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the US hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the US hotel industry.



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