Market Report Dubai

Foreign Travel Leading Indicator to Dubai Up 0.2% in December

E-forecasting.com and Hotstats Release Dubai Hotel Market Profitability Forecast With Foreign Travel Leading Indicator

In December, e‒forecasting.com's Foreign Travel Leading Indicator (FTLI) for Dubai increased 0.2% to 112.5 from 112.3 in November. Dubai's FTLI is set equal to 100 in 2005. 

About eight million or 80% of all people who visit Dubai every year reside abroad.  Taking this into account, the Dubai Foreign Travel Leading Indicator (FTLI) gives an indication of the near term future travel intentions for international travelers to this market. 

Graph - Foreign Travel Leading Indicator Dec 14 to Dec 15FTLI's six-month smoothed annualized growth rate posted a reading of (+2%) in December of 2015, following a reading of (+2%) in November of 2015.  The latest snapshot of FTLI's growth rate shows that the economic climate abroad, which drives future travel intentions to Dubai, was growing in December and at the same pace as in November. 

Country-wide leading economic indicators - predictive analytics composed of forward looking metrics that foreshadow, 6-9 months ahead, each country's current economic conditions - have an important contribution to the future overall foreign demand for Dubai hotel services. The latest snapshot of the top five countries driving foreign demand for Dubai hotels is as follows: 

  • The leading economic indicator for India increased (+0.3%) in December from the previous month; on an annual basis, it was 5.8 points above its mark a year ago.
  • The leading economic indicator for Great Britain increased (+0.1%) in December from the previous month; on an annual basis, it was 0.5 points above its mark a year ago.
  • The leading economic indicator for United States increased (+0.1%) in December from the previous month; on an annual basis, it was 0.5 points above its mark a year ago.
  • The leading economic indicator for Germany increased (+0.2%) in December from the previous month; on an annual basis, it was 1.5 points above its mark a year ago.
  • The leading economic indicator for Russia held steady in December from the previous month; on an annual basis, it was 0.3 points below its mark a year ago. 

Looking at the future domestic demand for staying in Dubai's hotels, December's picture shows that the national leading economic indicator decreased (‒0.1%). The latest mark was 2.5 points above the leading indicator's level a year ago. 

Based on United Arab Emirates' Hotel Industry Leading (HIL), the probability of an upcoming recession for the national hotel industry registered a reading of 70.1% in December of 2015, which is 7.7 percent points higher than the recession risk posted in November. 

The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate of UAE HIL posted a reading of (‒0.1%) in December of 2015, after an expansion signal of (+1.3%) in November. 

The United Arab Emirates' HIL declined 0.5% in December to 181 from 182 in November.  UAE HIL is set equal to 100 in 2005. 

Graph - Forecast Foreign Travel Leading IndicatorThese drivers and more are all used in the development of the quarterly hotel market profitability forecasts, a result of a predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats to provide in real time monthly hotel insights with a competitive advantage for UK, European and MENA top destinations. The HotStats hotel database, which is immense and industry's most comprehensive, coupled with e-forecasting.com's over 20 years expertise in forecasting hotel markets around the world with the industry's best accuracy record is brings to the market an unparalleled decision-making tool for hoteliers and executives in hotel-related businesses.

In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, the quarterly Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts also provide in depth analysis of the economic environment and how it relates to the forecast for each hotel market.  This additional analysis includes country-wide hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market,  labor market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and special events.  Each Monthly Hotel Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. It is available on an annual subscription basis.

About e-forecasting.com 

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.                       

About HotStats

HotStats, a leading firm in the hotels, tourism and leisure industries, provides a unique profit and loss benchmarking service to hoteliers from the UK, European and MENA markets, with more than 100 performance metric comparisons covering 70 areas of hotel revenue, cost, profit and statistics. For more information visit www.hotstats.com



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