Market Report San Diego

Predictive Analytics for San Diego's Hoteliers Improved in March

Business activity for San Diego's hoteliers improved in March according to the latest reading of the city's Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP). e−forecasting.com's San Diego HIP - a business analytic which tracks monthly overall business conditions in San Diego's hotel industry - increased 0.2% in February to a reading of 111.6. HIP index is set to equal 100 in 2010.
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Predictive Analytics for San Diego's Hoteliers Improved in March

e-forecasting.com

Business activity for San Diego's hoteliers improved in March according to the latest reading of the city's Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP). e-forecasting.com's San Diego HIP - a business analytic which tracks monthly overall business conditions in San Diego's hotel industry - increased 0.2% in February to a reading of 111.6. HIP index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

Looking ahead of the curve, prospects of future business activity for San Diego's hoteliers increased in March according to the latest reading of the city's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's San Diego HIL - a predictive analytic which gauges monthly what's next for business in San Diego's hotel industry - rose 0.1% in February to a reading of 123.2, following an increase of (+0.1%) in January. HIL index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

Graph - Future business activity San Diego HotelsThe six-month smoothed annualized growth rate of San Diego's predictive analytic HIL registered a positive reading of (+1.4%) in February, following a gain of (+1.4%) in January. Consistent with its goal, the six-month smoothed annualized growth rate in HIL dips down several months ahead of the growth rate of the city's hotel performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Similarly, when the city's hotels are in a downswing of the industry's business cycle, the growth in HIL pops up first, signaling an upcoming end of the business recession, which implies a forthcoming recovery in business activity.

"The probability for the city's hotels entering a recession in the near future with falling performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), declined to 41.4% in February from 41.5% in January." said Maria Sogard CEO at e-forecasting.com.

"When this recession-warning gauge passes the doorstep probability of 25%, growth in hotel performance indicators slow down substantially; and, when the recession probability passes the threshold of 50%, growth rates in hotel industry's performance indicators will turn from positive to negative in a few months later." Maria added.

Five of the eight forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise San Diego's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) had a positive contribution to its change in February: State Leading; Foreign Demand; Domestic Feeders; Oil Prices and Jobs Market. Three indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to the change of San Diego's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) in February: Yield Curve; Consumers Mood and Travel Barometer.


e-forecasting.com currently covers the top 25 US markets with predictive analytics reports on a monthly basis.  Rather than simply collecting data, the analytics technology relies on the aggregation of data. This approach connects data, helping integrate facts in a meaningful way. The process first adjusts raw data for recurring events such as seasonality and then filters out outliers such as specific events - so called blind spots - which debilitate informed decisions; second, it aggregates adjusted data to groups of similarly-moving contextual analytics - called composites.  

For more information: http://www.e-forecasting.com/Hotelinsights/Hotel-Predictive-Analytics.html



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