Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $213.85 this April, up from $197.08 in March, according to trivago hotel price indices¹ (tHPI) released today. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $381 to a low of $125 this April. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2016 about 65% of all reservations are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth eight years ago.
On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+12.2%) in April from a year ago, higher than the previous month's year-over-year growth rate of (+4.8%). This April, the average trivago online room rate in Boston, after rising (+19.8%) from last year, hit $381 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets. Washington D.C. takes the second place in April with an online room rate of $364, after an increase of (+18.2%) from a year ago. In New York, the online room rate in April is shrinking (−0.3%) from last year to $321 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.
At the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this April are: Orlando recording a trivago online ADR of $145 a night after a (+5.1%) change from a year ago; San Antonio posts an online ADR of $132 following a (+8.2%) change from last year; and lastly, the most affordable popular destination in the country is Salt Lake City with an online ADR of $125 after a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $187 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, Atlanta is the country's average affordable city to visit this April.
Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate has hit $197.41 in April. On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago - the SSA online ADR this April is up (+0.4%) from the previous month, which is the same percent change as in the previous month. Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in April ranges from a high of (+3.5%) in Phoenix to a low of (−1.3%) in Atlanta. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 17 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 8 cities.
"The latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts profits per online room rates to decline on a year-over-year basis in the second half of 2016," said Maria Sogard, CEO of eforecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR, costs per room, profitability and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at firstname.lastname@example.org with subject: USHOTfcast.
Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are up (+9.9%) on a year-over-year basis in April, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate has gained (+12.2%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+2.1%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (+3.3%) in the previous month (March), compared to a mark of (−4.2%) a year ago (April 2015). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+21.0%) in Minneapolis to a low of (−2.4%) in New York in April. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 22 cities; they are down or are flat in three cities.
On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 31% in April, which is lower than March's reading of 36%. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in April ranges from a high of 100% in Seattle to a low of 1% in Phoenix. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in 10 cities; it is 50% or below in 15 cities.
Founded in Durham, NH in 1994, e-forecasting.com is a predictive intelligence consulting firm offering to clients customized solutions for what’s next. For over 15 years, its hotel insights division has focused on hotel predictive analytics and forecasting products for the top destinations around the world to enhance its clients competitive advantage and improve their bottom line.
Founded in Düsseldorf in 2005 with operations in 39 countries, trivago is the world’s largest online hotel search site, comparing room rates from over 700,000 hotels on over 200 booking sites worldwide. Each month, more than 45 million visitors use trivago’s unique online technology, which compares 5 billion hotel deals a day - more than a trillion a year - and saves them an average of 35% per booking. Visit online http://www.trivago.com.
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