Market Report New York City

Recession Risk for New York Hotels Lowers to 38.3% Releases NYC Hotel Market Forecast With Hotel Industry Leading Indicator for the City

e‒'s NYC HIL (hotel industry leading indicator) advanced 0.3% to 142.2.   The NYC HIL is set equal to 100 in 2010. 

The probability of an upcoming recession for the New York City hotel market registered a reading of 38.3% in September of 2016, based on NYC’s Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) which is slightly lower than the previous month’s risk reading of 41.5% and a retreat from a peak of 54.7% reach in May.

Graph - NYC monthly hotel ADR Forecast

“Four of the top five markets that visit NYC hotels continue to advance (the UK, Canada, Germany and France in order of growth) and our statewide New York leading indicator also showed improvement over the last few months,” commented Maria Sogard, CEO of  “Our latest forecast called for strong oADR growth in 2017 at 12.2%.”

In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, the monthly Hotel Market Forecasts also provide in depth analysis of the economic environment and how it relates to the forecast for each hotel market.  This additional analysis includes country-wide and market level hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market,  labor market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and special events.  The report also covers the key metrics of online average daily rate (oADR), and unit profit forecasts per room.  Each Monthly Hotel Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. It is available on an annual subscription basis.

About, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e− collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.

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