Market Report Dubai

Dubai Forecast Revised Upwards

Key EMEA Market of Dubai Forecast Revised Upwards Amid Improved Changing Global Conditions

Drilling down to the all important metric of gross operating profits per available room, or GOPPAR for short, hotels throughout Europe and MENA will experience varying levels of profits through 2017 according to the latest quarterly forecast data released by e-forecasting and HotStats.  Of note, the Dubai hotel market will experience stronger profit growth in 2017 and 2018, and will round out the year with negative profits, although not quite as severe as previously forecast according to the latest quarterly update to the Dubai Hotel Market Profitability Forecast released by and HotStats. 


GOPPAR Forecast









"We see varying trends for each key hotel market that influence profits, based mainly on drivers such as changes in demand from visitor-feeding countries as well as domestic costs such as labor and energy.  Major geopolitical events such as the Brexit and country elections have also played a major role in the changing outlook," commented Maria Sogard, CEO of

Several additional key factors have been taking into account with the forecast revision and update for Dubai, including:

  • Improved outlook for consumer and business spending
  • Forward momentum of growth rate of UAE HIP (real time United Arab Emirates hotel industry indicator)
  • Stronger outlook for future tourism from global feeder countries by UAE FTLI (leading indicator for foreign travel to United Arab Emirates)
  • End of global deflation pressures  
  • Stabilized to rising oil prices
  • Expected changes in US monetary policy by the FED

International coverage of the Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts includes includes: Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam, Berlin, Dubai, Frankfurt, London, Munich, Newcastle, Paris, Provincial UK, Vienna and country-wide reports on Germany and the United Kingdom. The Hotel Market Profitability Forecast reports are the first of their type to present a full picture of the health of the hotel industry with a focus on occupancy, average room rate (ARR), rooms revenue per available room (RevPAR), total revenue per available room (TRevPAR) and GOPPAR.

The Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts are real-time quarterly profitability forecasts covering major markets across the UK, Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Each Quarterly Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. Annual subscription is available for £1,500 + VAT for 4 quarterly reports for one single market or you can purchase one report for one single market for £850 + VAT. The next issues reporting on Quarter 2 2015 will be released in early July 2015. Please contact or to purchase a report or subscription or should you have any questions.

In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, ARR, RevPAR, TRevPAR and GOPPAR, the Quarterly Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts also provide in-depth analysis of the economic environment and its relation to the forecast for each hotel market. This additional analysis includes country-wide hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market, labour market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and other special events.

About, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customised solutions for what’s next. e− collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.  For more information visit

About HotStats

HotStats is a leading company providing profit and loss data to the hospitality industry. We go beyond RevPAR to focus on total revenues and profits conversion. For further information, please visit


Editor’s Notes:

Occupancy (%) is that proportion of the bedrooms available during the period which are occupied during the period.

Average Room Rate (ARR) is the total bedroom revenue for the period divided by the total bedrooms occupied during the period.

Room RevPar (RevPAR) is the total bedroom revenue for the period divided by the total available rooms during the period.

Total RevPar (TRevPAR) is the combined total of all revenues divided by the total available rooms during the period.

Payroll % is the payroll for all hotels in the sample as a percentage of total revenue.

GOPPAR is the Total Gross Operating Profit for the period divided by the total available rooms during the period.

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