Market Report U.S.

U.S. Online Hotel Room Rates Up 1.6% in February

e-forecasting.com

Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $182.02 this February, up from $171.96 in January, according to online hotel rooom price indices from trivago's unique global multi-provider platform¹. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $249 to a low of $119 this February. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2017 about 70% of all reservations are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth eight years ago.

Table - US Hotel Biz Analytics January 2017

On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+1.6%) in February from a year ago, lower than the previous month's year-over-year growth rate of (+1.8%). This February, the average trivago online room rate in Washington D.C., after rising (+7.3%) from last year, hit $249 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets.  Miami takes the second place in February with an online room rate of $248, after a drop of (−3.9%) from a year ago. In San Francisco, the online room rate in February is shrinking (−5.8%) from last year to $228 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.

Table - Top 25 US DestinationsAt the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this February are: Salt Lake City recording a trivago online ADR of $136 a night after a (+5.4%) change from a year ago; Indianapolis posts an online ADR of $130 following a (+2.4%) change from last year; and lastly,  the most affordable popular destination in the country is San Antonio with an online ADR of $119 after a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $176 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, Philadelphia is the country's average affordable city to visit this February.

Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate has hit $196.36 in February.  On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago - the SSA online ADR this February is down (−0.3%) from the previous month, which is the same percent change as in the previous month. Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in February ranges from a high of (+1.3%) in Detroit to a low of (−1.8%) in Orlando. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 8 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 17 cities.

"In 2017, US hoteliers' online ADR is forecast to average $199.46, an increase of just 0.4% from 2016," said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR, costs per room, profitability and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at info@e-forecasting.com with subject: USHOTfcast.

Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are down (−1.0%) on a year-over-year basis in February, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate has gained (+1.6%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+2.6%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (−1.0%) in the previous month (January), compared to a mark of (+6.1%) a year ago (February 2016). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+12.6%) in Detroit to a low of (−18.2%) in San Jose in February. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 11 cities; they are down or are flat in 14 cities.

On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 99% in February, which is higher than January's reading of 98%. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in February ranges from a high of 100% in Philadelphia to a low of 1% in Detroit. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in 20 cities; it is 50% or below in 5 cities.

Graph - Hotel Online Room Rates

In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, online ADR, RevPAR, unit costs and unit profits, the Monthly Hotel Forecasts for the US also provide in depth analysis of the economic environment and how it relates to the forecast for each hotel market.  This additional analysis includes country-wide hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market,  labor market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and special events.  Each Monthly Hotel Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. It is available on an annual subscription basis.  Geographic coverage of hotel market forecasts also includes key European, Middle East and North African markets using historical data from HotStats, the hospitality intelligence provider.

About e-forecasting.com                                                                                                        

Founded in Durham, NH in 1994, e-forecasting.com is a predictive intelligence consulting firm offering to clients customized solutions for what’s next. For over 15 years, its hotel insights division has focused on hotel predictive analytics and forecasting products for the top destinations around the world to enhance its clients competitive advantage and improve their bottom line.

About trivago

Founded in Düsseldorf in 2005 with operations in 39 countries, trivago is the world’s largest online hotel search site, comparing room rates from over 700,000 hotels on over 200 booking sites worldwide.  Each month, more than 45 million visitors use trivago’s unique online technology, which compares 5 billion hotel deals a day - more than a trillion a year - and saves them an average of 35% per booking.  Visit online http://www.trivago.com.



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