Market Report Hong Kong

Predictive Analytics for Hong Kong's Hoteliers Weakened in June

e-forecasting.com

Business activity for Hong Kong's hoteliers weakened in June according to the latest reading of the country's Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP). e−forecasting.com's Hong Kong HIP - a business analytic which tracks monthly overall business conditions in Hong Kong's hotel industry -  decreased 0.6% in June to a reading of 121.9. HIP index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

Looking ahead of the curve, prospects of future business activity for Hong Kong's hoteliers decreased in June according to the latest reading of the country's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's Hong Kong HIL - a predictive analytic which gauges monthly what's next for business in Hong Kong's hotel industry -  fell 0.7% in June to a reading of 113.1, following a decline of (–0.2%) in May. HIL index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

Hong Kong Hotel Indicators July 2017

Graph - Hong Kong Hotel Indicators June 2017The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate of Hong Kong's predictive analytic HIL registered a negative reading of (–6.9%) in June, following a loss of (–6.3%) in May. Consistent with its goal, the six-month smoothed annualized growth rate in HIL dips down several months ahead of the growth rate of the country's hotel performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Similarly, when the country's hotels are in a downswing of the industry's business cycle, the growth in HIL pops up first, signaling an upcoming end of the business recession, which implies a forthcoming recovery in business activity.

"The probability for the country's hotels entering a recession in the near future with falling performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), rose to 56.8% in June from 56.2% in May." said  Maria Sogard CEO at e-forecasting.com.

"When this recession-warning gauge passes the doorstep probability of 25%, growth in hotel performance indicators slow down substantially; and, when the recession probability passes the threshold of 50%, growth rates in hotel industry's performance indicators will turn from positive to negative in a few months later." Maria added.

"Four of the seven forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hong Kong's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) had a positive contribution to its change in June: Equity Market Shares Price; Re-Exports; Retail Business and Manufacturing Barometer; " said Evangelos Simos, editor of predictive analytics databases and professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire. "Three indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to the change of Hong Kong's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) in June: Energy Costs; US Future Hotel Business and Tourism Cycle; " Simos added. 

About Hotel Predictive  Analytics®                                                                                                                       

The Hotel Predictive Analytics series published online by e−forecasting.com are the only predictive intelligence reports covering both industry-specific and city-specific analytics, like this monthly Digest of China Hotel Predictive Analytics. Each report offers a unique visualization of the past, the present and the future - including the continuously evolving probabilities from changes in the business climate, which is driven by city, state, national, and international market forces and policies.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm with over 10 years experience forecasting hotel markets throughout the world, offers predictive analytics and forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with global partners and data-providing organizations to provide timely predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.



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